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Prediction for CME (2023-08-05T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-05T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26352/-1
CME Note: Wide CME seen W and S in SOHO and STEREO A associated with long duration M1.6-class solar flare/filament eruption near S10W68. Faint shock presents as a full halo with preference towards the west. Around 2023-08-05T06:45Z, a dark filament near the western portion of the disk is seen lifting off, becoming a bright structure as it leaves the disk towards the west. A somewhat unclear arrival signature, affected by low quality solar wind data from both DSCOVR and ACE during this time period. Arrival signature: initial increase in B_total from 7.4 nT to 10.5 nT, followed by another increase to 13.6 nT at 11:54Z. The signature looks like a messy sheath arrival and it is possible that there is a flux rope/magnetic cloud at ~2023-08-08T01Z but this could be another CME arrival (LASSOS team). The current arrival may also have been observed at STEREO A around 2023-08-07T08:46Z. Alternatively, this could be the combined arrival of 2023-08-04T04:17Z and 2023-08-04T04:49Z CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T11:07Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T18:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1020
Longitude (deg): 047W
Latitude (deg):  10S
Half-angular width (deg): 47

Notes: Glancing impact most likely, but may also arrive with, or shortly after CME on 07 Aug to give increased enhancement. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 15.28 hour(s)
Difference: -6.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-08-06T19:50Z

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